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Coronavirus

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  • B
    B
    Boris3
    wrote on last edited by
    #163

    Japan is a quirky and fascinating place, and I have been traveling there for all sorts of work and other reasons for almost 40 years. I expect there is extensive under reporting. The issue is not governmental control over reporting as in China but aspects of Japanese society and medical profession. Japan has an inverted population pyramid with a large elderly population often with little in the way of family support/check-ins. Many of them are shut ins and as such I expect there are illnesses and deaths at home that have yet to be discovered. Social norms about disease are also such that there would be patterns of self-isolation, and again the absence of check-ins. There are also community separations and histories of discrimination such that these communities would turn inward and the rest of Japan would not look to closely. This includes the economic lower class burakumin communities, areas with concentrations of ethnic Korean and Chinese, as well as more recent migrant communities that are employed under the radar so to speak and often lack access to social services.

    Although there is a national health care system, there is a tendency of medical professionals to avoid reporting things they do not understand and in the context of the Olympic push I expect a pattern among higher ups to avoid looking for and revealing information that could have placed the event at risk. There is also a tendency of medical personnel to hide information from patients and family about causes of serious illnesses and death to avoid disturbing them with bad news. This has often been a pattern in cancer diagnoses, since the diagnosis suggested the sureity of death.

    Now a more positive spin on the low numbers to date is that the Japanese practice of facemask use when folks have colds or allergies is extensive and their widespread access to masks may have acted as a check.  Bottom line is that I would expect the Japan numbers to rise extensively.

    1990 325i racecar (ITS, former Spec E30); 2004 330i ZHP

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    2
    • B
      B
      B C
      wrote on last edited by
      #164

      When I had looked at Japan’s numbers I found it curious that they were so low. The insight you provided is interesting

      1 Reply Last reply
      0
      • straight6pwrS
        straight6pwrS
        straight6pwr
        wrote on last edited by
        #165

        wally509 said:

        One thing I've never understood from the beginning of this is if the disease is so infectious and deadly, why are there jillions of people dead in China?  Those people are packed in like sardines in the cities over there. 

        I fully realize their socialist/communist/whatever the hell they are now government is going to bury the truth about how many people croaked out but there are so many American and European corporate interests over there at this point, there's NO WAY they could hide the numbers that should be dead.  If nothing else they should be smelling the tens of millions of rotting corpses in Japan by now, right?

        China acted pretty fast, and the Wuhan/China lockdown was in place about 3 weeks after the disease was discovered. and has been said, with their government, REALLY locked down. New York City metro area, which is about the size of Wuhan, took the same amount of time to lock down after the first reported case. its obvious that not everyone listened or at lease adopted the ideas slowly. considering the spread of the virus is exponential (one sick person gets multiple more people sick), at least a week of delay, and likely under-reported China cases, I think the difference in cases between New York (240,000) and China (90,000) is not unusual. 

        you also seem to be ignoring the fact that measures are being done to stop the spread, and in our fast-communicating world, it has helped. people keep saying its not that bad and conveniently ignore that the measures (like social distancing) in place are why. read about the flu epidemic of 1918. it was equally as contagious, but actually less deadly (percentage of people who got the disease and survived was higher). we have history and experience with a pandemic like this. experts arent just making shit up, it's happened before. we dont have millions of people dead because of the measures that have been put in place. do you really need to see millions of people dead to start thinking "oh shit this is a problem".

        Dan
        yajsYRL.jpg.e5f350b4dfe961d76ac8b32efce2e1a6.jpg

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        • KaiserRollsK
          KaiserRollsK
          KaiserRolls
          wrote on last edited by
          #166

          To trust anything being reported out of China is foolish

          1 Reply Last reply
          2
          • wally509W
            wally509W
            wally509
            wrote on last edited by
            #167

            gilber33 said:

            For the exact reason you said. It's a communist country. They lock everything down and tell people to stay inside and they do it. Disease can't spread if no one is outside to spread it. 

            Got your point, still don't understand given the population density in those cities how it couldn't spread like wildfire before they realized they needed to go on full lockdown.  And to reiterate, I don't believe their numbers, but it just seems it would have been so out of control by the time they went on lockdown, they wouldn't have been able to hide what was going on.

            "The more things change, the more they SUCK." -Butt-Head (Mike Judge)

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            0
            • KaiserRollsK
              KaiserRollsK
              KaiserRolls
              wrote on last edited by
              #168

              1AAB8BA9-556E-4242-A4FA-54E192CFD9D7.png

              and here we go. Safer in handcuffs

              1 Reply Last reply
              0
              • jc43089J
                jc43089J
                jc43089
                wrote on last edited by
                #169

                KaiserRolls said:

                1AAB8BA9-556E-4242-A4FA-54E192CFD9D7.png

                and here we go. Safer in handcuffs 

                I was at the rally on Friday at the Capital.  The police told the early arrivals to leave about a half hour before it started and they were just ignored.  They backed down and let it go on with no interference.  It would have been tough to ticket/arrest 2000+ people...

                It's hard to say your grounds for arresting someone when what you are saying is the constitution is suspended because someone defines it as emergency times.

                2/94 325i Sedan, Arctic Gray: UUC LTW FW, EVO 3 and DSSR, +.020 Maxsil pistons, ASC delete, Eibach shocks/springs, 16" contour reps 238k
                3/93 325i Coupe, Schwarz 2, Sketchy stance action, ebay turbo, 300k
                '89 325i Vert, Alpine White: 5spd swapped, sold.

                '04 Toyota Sienna: 24V to 24V swap in progress

                '05 Volvo V70R, 6spd.  200k
                '85 Toyota LandCruiser: Lifted, gas hog. 205k
                '99 Nissan Maxima: 5spd, Rusty but trusty winter beater. 252k RIP.

                1 Reply Last reply
                0
                • Bassboy3313B
                  Bassboy3313B
                  Bassboy3313
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #170

                  jc43089 said:

                  I was at the rally on Friday at the Capital.

                  RIP

                  CHECK OUT >>> RAGE DRIFT DESIGNS <<< FOR DECALS AND MORE!

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                  2
                  • damnboy037D
                    damnboy037D
                    damnboy037
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #171

                    If this goes against everything this country was created for and she (the woman who opened her business) ends up infecting & killing someone, then she should get charged with murder.  You can’t have it both ways, while thinking you are not privileged.

                    99 M3 320rwhp @ 6psi

                    95 M3 s50b32

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    0
                    • jc43089J
                      jc43089J
                      jc43089
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #172

                      damnboy037 said:

                      If this goes against everything this country was created for and she (the woman who opened her business) ends up infecting & killing someone, then she should get charged with murder.  You can’t have it both ways, while thinking you are not privileged. 

                      I think you are missing the part where nobody has to go to the store if they don't want to ...

                      Should WalMart be charged with murder if someone gets Covid19 there?  That is following the same logic as your statement.

                      If I was 80 years old I would probably stay home and ask a healthy friend to drop stuff off for me.  I'm 30 and healthy so I am not worried about it.  I am also not visiting anyone that might be at risk.

                      2/94 325i Sedan, Arctic Gray: UUC LTW FW, EVO 3 and DSSR, +.020 Maxsil pistons, ASC delete, Eibach shocks/springs, 16" contour reps 238k
                      3/93 325i Coupe, Schwarz 2, Sketchy stance action, ebay turbo, 300k
                      '89 325i Vert, Alpine White: 5spd swapped, sold.

                      '04 Toyota Sienna: 24V to 24V swap in progress

                      '05 Volvo V70R, 6spd.  200k
                      '85 Toyota LandCruiser: Lifted, gas hog. 205k
                      '99 Nissan Maxima: 5spd, Rusty but trusty winter beater. 252k RIP.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      1
                      • damnboy037D
                        damnboy037D
                        damnboy037
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #173

                        jc43089 said:

                        I think you are missing the part where nobody has to go to the store if they don't want to ...

                        Should WalMart be charged with murder if someone gets Covid19 there?  That is following the same logic as your statement.

                        If I was 80 years old I would probably stay home and ask a healthy friend to drop stuff off for me.  I'm 30 and healthy so I am not worried about it.  I am also not visiting anyone that might be at risk.

                        Not missing anything, I said if she ends up infecting and killing someone. Don’t assume my logic applies to to corporations the same way.  

                        You have to understand that this is a state law set by the government, dumber laws that are harmless have worse consequences.  People who whine about the economy and getting back to work are the real chumps.

                        99 M3 320rwhp @ 6psi

                        95 M3 s50b32

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        0
                        • jc43089J
                          jc43089J
                          jc43089
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #174

                          damnboy037 said:

                          Not missing anything, I said if she ends up infecting and killing someone. Don’t assume my logic applies to to corporations the same way.  

                          You have to understand that this is a state law set by the government, dumber laws that are harmless have worse consequences.  People who whine about the economy and getting back to work are the real chumps. 

                          So a corporation has immunity and a small business does not?  

                          I am challenging they notion that it makes sense to have a massive building packed with people like Walmart or similar stores but yet a lady doing curbside drop off of a pet is dangerous and needs to be arrested?

                          What is really going on here is that if a governor tried to make all Walmart's in their state close they would be at the wrong end of a lawsuit within hours.  

                          You do realize that about 647,000 people in the USA died from heart disease last year?  That is  12,400 in a week.  Ref

                          So should we ban McDonald's?  Cigarettes?  Shut the country down?  Let's get started solving that problem!

                          Read here to find that the week of 4/11 had the worst death toll for Covid19 and it was 11,468.  Therefore the worst week of Covid19 was not even what the average week of people dying of heart disease, and last week was down to 1,078.  The media likes to use sensational numbers but that is baseless and unhelpful like a graph with no units.

                          2/94 325i Sedan, Arctic Gray: UUC LTW FW, EVO 3 and DSSR, +.020 Maxsil pistons, ASC delete, Eibach shocks/springs, 16" contour reps 238k
                          3/93 325i Coupe, Schwarz 2, Sketchy stance action, ebay turbo, 300k
                          '89 325i Vert, Alpine White: 5spd swapped, sold.

                          '04 Toyota Sienna: 24V to 24V swap in progress

                          '05 Volvo V70R, 6spd.  200k
                          '85 Toyota LandCruiser: Lifted, gas hog. 205k
                          '99 Nissan Maxima: 5spd, Rusty but trusty winter beater. 252k RIP.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          0
                          • straight6pwrS
                            straight6pwrS
                            straight6pwr
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #175

                            jc43089 said:

                            Read here to find that the week of 4/11 had the worst death toll for Covid19 and it was 11,468.  Therefore the worst week of Covid19 was not even what the average week of people dying of heart disease, and last week was down to 1,078.  The media likes to use sensational numbers but that is baseless and unhelpful like a graph with no units.

                            lol, more trolling

                            pot-kettle-black.jpg?w=584

                            Dan
                            yajsYRL.jpg.e5f350b4dfe961d76ac8b32efce2e1a6.jpg

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            0
                            • jc43089J
                              jc43089J
                              jc43089
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #176

                              straight6pwr said:

                              lol, more trolling

                              pot-kettle-black.jpg?w=584

                              Both links are right to the CDC website, It's not just CNN, FOX or other unreliable sources.  :)

                              2/94 325i Sedan, Arctic Gray: UUC LTW FW, EVO 3 and DSSR, +.020 Maxsil pistons, ASC delete, Eibach shocks/springs, 16" contour reps 238k
                              3/93 325i Coupe, Schwarz 2, Sketchy stance action, ebay turbo, 300k
                              '89 325i Vert, Alpine White: 5spd swapped, sold.

                              '04 Toyota Sienna: 24V to 24V swap in progress

                              '05 Volvo V70R, 6spd.  200k
                              '85 Toyota LandCruiser: Lifted, gas hog. 205k
                              '99 Nissan Maxima: 5spd, Rusty but trusty winter beater. 252k RIP.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              1
                              • KaiserRollsK
                                KaiserRollsK
                                KaiserRolls
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #177

                                damnboy037 said:

                                If this goes against everything this country was created for and she (the woman who opened her business) ends up infecting & killing someone, then she should get charged with murder.  You can’t have it both ways, while thinking you are not privileged. 

                                As of 4/29/20 @8:00am her curbside service for dog grooming is now “legally” able to operate. 

                                EDD6A3D9-8C16-46FE-A65A-E28F886B8F93.png

                                https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/madison.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/f5/6f50c498-e573-5462-8dea-1558765fe852/5ea74540f1ce8.pdf.pdf

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                0
                                • G
                                  G
                                  gilber33
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #178

                                  jc43089 said:

                                  You do realize that about 647,000 people in the USA died from heart disease last year?  That is  12,400 in a week.  Ref

                                  So should we ban McDonald's?  Cigarettes?  Shut the country down?  Let's get started solving that problem!

                                  Read here to find that the week of 4/11 had the worst death toll for Covid19 and it was 11,468.  Therefore the worst week of Covid19 was not even what the average week of people dying of heart disease, and last week was down to 1,078.  The media likes to use sensational numbers but that is baseless and unhelpful like a graph with no units.

                                  That's a pretty subjective comparison, though.The worst weekly death toll for covid is with a stay at home order and businesses everywhere closed. Had that not been implemented, and the government said to carry on with all of your normal behaviors and don't change anything, I would ASSUME that number would significantly higher.

                                  And there's too many variables in heart disease to use that as a broad comparison to this by saying we should ban mcdonalds, cigarettes, etc.

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                                  0
                                  • patsbimmer1P
                                    patsbimmer1P
                                    patsbimmer1
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #179

                                    jc43089 said:

                                    Both links are right to the CDC website, It's not just CNN, FOX or other unreliable sources.  :)

                                    Please tell me you know the difference between heart disease and COVID-19.  You know that high blood pressure, congenital heart disease, arrhythmia, heart attacks, etc. they're not contagious, right?  You know that many aren't 100% preventable and can typically be effectively managed through medication, healthy diet and genetic luck... right?  That deaths caused by these diseases is either due to neglect over years and years, a shortened lifespan in which that person was still able to live a long life after a diagnosis or genetic misfortune, right?  You know that the danger of COVID-19 is it's ability to spread rapidly throughout the world within a matter of months let alone how quickly it can take over a town, county, etc., right?

                                    Here's a shitty map I made quickly based on the positive cases since the beginning of April by county illustrating where the positive case growth is.  Data provided by the Wisconsin DHS, not an unreliable source.  As you'll notice the greatest rate of growth this month has been outside of the large metro areas and moved into rural counties.  Based on this data I say we shut down the rural counties.

                                    https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?panel=gallery&suggestField=true&url=https%3A%2F%2Fservices1.arcgis.com%2FISZ89Z51ft1G16OK%2FArcGIS%2Frest%2Fservices%2FCOVID19_WI%2FFeatureServer%2F1

                                    2011 e90 M3 - DCT, Borla exhaust, BMW Performance Black Grille, ECS Painted Corners, Ziza Angel Eyes

                                    07 335i Stella - sport package, BMS DCI, zhp knob, TMS cf parking brake lever, VRSF downpipes, MHD tune, H&R race springs, other stuff *SOLD*

                                    97 328i Lola - sport package, m50 intake manifold, m50 manifold.com install kit, custom CAI, K&N filter, Borla exhaust, FK silverline coilovers, 25.5mm front sway bar, Powerflex front sway bushings, Turner Radiator, fan delete *sold*
                                    95 325is *sold*
                                    93 nissan 240sx KA-T *sold*

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                                    "burnouts bring babes and babes dont have time for bushings" - Kaiser Rolls

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    1
                                    • B
                                      B
                                      B C
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #180

                                      I honestly dont know where I stand on the whole thing. Like EVERYTHING there are two sides to it,  there is no one correct answer that works best for all, and I see things both ways. I think the plan set in place is a fair attempt to strike some sort of balance of safety and economic advancement.

                                      Im keeping an eye on Georgia's stats over the next couple weeks to see if things blow up over there. 

                                      While we are at it, just be cause someone disagrees with you doesn't mean they hate you. 

                                      I use "you" universally.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      0
                                      • SteelBlueS
                                        SteelBlueS
                                        SteelBlue
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #181

                                        B C said:

                                        I honestly dont know where I stand on the whole thing. Like EVERYTHING there are two sides to it,  there is no one correct answer that works best for all, and I see things both ways. I think the plan set in place is a fair attempt to strike some sort of balance of safety and economic advancement.

                                        Im keeping an eye on Georgia's stats over the next couple weeks to see if things blow up over there. 

                                        While we are at it, just be cause someone disagrees with you doesn't mean they hate you. 

                                        I use "you" universally. 

                                        No. Please pick one side or the other, communicate in your personalized online echo chamber, and whatever you do, do not listen to any differing opinion towards your own whatsoever.

                                        Thank you,

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        3
                                        • B
                                          B
                                          B C
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #182

                                          SteelBlue said:

                                          No. Please pick one side or the other, communicate in your personalized online echo chamber, and whatever you do, do not listen to any differing opinion towards your own whatsoever.

                                          Thank you,

                                          How dare you reject my opinion.

                                          I challenge you to fisticuffs!

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