Coronavirus
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first things first, WI is looking hopeful - the number of new cases has been steady over the last few days, instead of increasing. rate of spread is slowing and social distancing is working. lets hope the election shenanigans dont compromise our progress.
second things second.
I was thinking that this 4/20 is going to be the biggest 4/20 in history, due to the number of people at home and the number of people who need a fricken break from real life. thoughts?
I went to city hall in Greenfield to vote, which is a quarter mile away from my house, only go find out I needed to vote at Whitnall HS. I don’t understand why it went on as scheduled.
4/20 goes on all month this year
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Hmm. Transporting reefer isn't as lucrative as I would have expected...
My $.02:
I think we did the right thing mandating stay-at-home early so that our healthcare system isn't overloaded. We're better off here than a lot of other places because of it. However, this virus isn't going away. Eventually, people are going to have to start going back to normal life. Until 90-something percent of people have either gotten it or been vaccinated it's still going to be out there spreading. I don't think we can all social-distance for a year until a vaccine is available, so in the meantime, we're kind of screwed. We just need to control the rate that it spreads so that our healthcare system can handle it, and do the best we can to protect vulnerable populations.
Probably not what people want to hear, but that's what it looks like from where I'm standing.
its harder to see the long picture that the short term.
lets assume your scenario plays out. 90% of people get the virus, 10% are vaccinated. based on a conservative death rate from the virus of 2%, that means 140,000,000 people on earth will die. based on the hospitalization rates, that means 3 billion people will need to go to the hospital. hospitals will probably be overwhelmed, and wont have enough ventilators for everyone. assume another 2% of people die because they cant get help. you don't think 280 million people dead forever and a failing medical system will have a greater impact on our world than 15,000,000 people unemployed for a year?
Dan
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its harder to see the long picture that the short term.
lets assume your scenario plays out. 90% of people get the virus, 10% are vaccinated. based on a conservative death rate from the virus of 2%, that means 140,000,000 people on earth will die. based on the hospitalization rates, that means 3 billion people will need to go to the hospital. hospitals will probably be overwhelmed, and wont have enough ventilators for everyone. assume another 2% of people die because they cant get help. you don't think 280 million people dead forever and a failing medical system will have a greater impact on our world than 15,000,000 people unemployed for a year?
Nah, I said "Until 90-something percent of people have either gotten it or been vaccinated". Just like with all the other infectious diseases that we vaccinate for, something like 96% (forget the actual number) have to be vaccinated in order to keep the disease from spreading amongst the remaining population. This is why the developed world is starting to see measles outbreaks again, because our vaccination rates aren't high enough anymore. In a year from now, I don't think 90% of people will have been infected. That's a hard number to predict.
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Another thing to consider is that a slowing global economy will kill a lot of people too, the number just isn't as visible because they will be poor people that die from various causes. First world countries have the resources to do something about it when a crisis hits, the third world doesn't. High unemployment is inconvenient for us, but for them it causes malnutrition, disease, crime, armed conflict, etc.
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Hmm. Took a break from obsessively shopping for cameras (like I said I didn't want to do... being sucked in to the void... Ahh!) and re-read this. Still not sure I really communicated what I meant to say. My point was that, in fact, we need people to get this virus, but we need to control the rate at which people are infected, while at the same time protecting people who are vulnerable and won't recover from it. This is assuming that once people have gotten it and recovered are no longer susceptible to it. So far I haven't heard of anyone getting it twice...
The important part is the rate at which people are infected. If every person that gets it infects two other people, then the healthcare system has to treat 100 people one week, 200 people the next week, 400 people the next week, and so on until it's completely out of control. Unfortunately, without extreme draconian measures, there's no way to completely stop the virus from spreading, nor is that really even desirable. We need people to get infected and recover so that the population at-large develops an immunity to it. That's what the immune system does. Other than a vaccine, there's no other way to stop the virus from spreading. Even if 90% succeed at social distancing 90% of the time, that's still 2% of people that are spreading the virus around. That's "flattening the curve". However, the point I was trying to make was that we can flatten the curve as much as we want, but the more we flatten it, the longer it gets. We've done a great job at turning exponential growth into linear growth, but I'm arguing that if the healthcare system is operating below capacity and the spread starts to decline, then we're doing too much social distancing and the economic hardship will outweigh the benefit of slowing the spread of the virus.
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Well said. That’s the crazy part is that even seemingly low percentages are still great numbers give our population of 328 million.
This article was interesting because of how they were able to socially trace the fallout of the spread from this event.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/us/coronavirus-biogen-boston-superspreader.html
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what I meant to say. My point was that, in fact, we need people to get this virus
Unfortunately, without extreme draconian measures, there's no way to completely stop the virus from spreading, nor is that really even desirable. We need people to get infected and recover so that the population at-large develops an immunity to it.
it can be controlled. we've done it with other viruses. i know this one is more contagious, but we were also poorly prepared.
i agree that heard immunity is a possible answer. but a lot of people have to die for that answer. if even half the planet gets it, thats still around 100,000,000 people dead. we have to try other things first. 5,000,000 die on earth per year. dont forget the first time a person gets it twice that whole idea is out the window.
Dan
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I got some good news last week Thursday, and I think we all need some good news about this.
I only know one person who had this disease, a friend of my Dad's/acquaintance of mine. Heard from my Dad that last Thursday he has fully recovered.
He went into the hospital on or around April 30th and tested positive for coronavirus. He went home.
The guy is a friend of my Dad's from the VFW, a Korean War veteran who is 90 years old. When my Dad forwarded me the e-mail that Mr. B had contracted the disease, I thought he was for sure a goner given his age.
Unfortunately I don't know a lot of details about how bad it was and such. My Dad is pretty freaked out about this so I didn't drill him for a whole lot of answers.
I hesitated to even type this given the only other person I told immediately slapped me down with "WELL PEOPLE HALF HIS AGE ARE DROPPING DEAD LEFT AND RIGHT!". But whatever, I understand some people are really concerned this is the end of the human race. With the talk here of hundreds of millions of people dying from this, I decided to take the chance and put out a positive note.
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I got some good news last week Thursday, and I think we all need some good news about this.
I only know one person who had this disease, a friend of my Dad's/acquaintance of mine. Heard from my Dad that last Thursday he has fully recovered.
He went into the hospital on or around April 30th and tested positive for coronavirus. He went home.
The guy is a friend of my Dad's from the VFW, a Korean War veteran who is 90 years old. When my Dad forwarded me the e-mail that Mr. B had contracted the disease, I thought he was for sure a goner given his age.
Unfortunately I don't know a lot of details about how bad it was and such. My Dad is pretty freaked out about this so I didn't drill him for a whole lot of answers.
I hesitated to even type this given the only other person I told immediately slapped me down with "WELL PEOPLE HALF HIS AGE ARE DROPPING DEAD LEFT AND RIGHT!". But whatever, I understand some people are really concerned this is the end of the human race. With the talk here of hundreds of millions of people dying from this, I decided to take the chance and put out a positive note.
Thanks for sharing, my father and mother in law both had it a couple weeks ago and are doing fine now as well, they are in their 60's and he at least is not the healthiest.
I realize this may be controversial but I think my family all had it around Christmas. All of the symptoms match and we were down for about a week, fever, headache, exhausted, lingering cough, etc. I think it has been going around here way before it was publicized but was not being diagnosed properly. An older guy at our church was sick for about a month around the same time and was told he had double pneumonia. It took him a long time but he is better now. Looking back I feel it is quite likely that he had it as well, there are reports from doctors around the country of odd pneumonia cases before the COVID-19 was documented properly. Being an instructor at a Technical school I am around a lot of people daily so I would assume that is where I got it. Maybe I am crazy but I'm not the only one who thinks it has been going around for a while.
This would actually be a positive thing because it means more people have had it and now have antibodies.
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This would actually be a positive thing because it means more people have had it and now have antibodies.
I think it will be very interesting when the antibody test is available and they start testing to see who has had it. I bet a lot of people will be really surprised to find out they had it and didn't know - because they didn't have symptoms, or like in your case, had it before it was in the media or symptoms were so minor they passed it off as a cold or something else.
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@wally509 that's great news! I'm happy to hear! I have an eerily similar story. I have a customer that I have gotten to know very well between him and his family. Well, I called last week to check in on them and his son told me his dad (80 something Korean war vet) had been in the hospital for 2 weeks and was stable but not getting out soon. They seemed optimistic about his recovery.
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Fuck
May 26th it is I guess.
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shit, i'm going too fast on the e30 project
said no one ever until this moment.
Dan
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I'm really bummed about this extension. I get it, and I understand. My wife has been at home with our 3 kids (3.5yo, almost 2yo, and 5mo) and it's wearing on them. I know I know there are people much worse off and I am by no means downplaying that. It's taking a toll on our oldest. There's some days where she just straight up says she feels sad for no reason. She's always asking to go walk downtown and walk in the shops and go to the restaurants. I was hoping that there would be a little more flexibility with it. You can go to the golf course now but can't have a group of ten in someone's back yard?
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I'm really bummed about this extension. I get it, and I understand. My wife has been at home with our 3 kids (3.5yo, almost 2yo, and 5mo) and it's wearing on them. I know I know there are people much worse off and I am by no means downplaying that. It's taking a toll on our oldest. There's some days where she just straight up says she feels sad for no reason. She's always asking to go walk downtown and walk in the shops and go to the restaurants. I was hoping that there would be a little more flexibility with it. You can go to the golf course now but can't have a group of ten in someone's back yard?
You can do whatever you want
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some after work reading material
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You can do whatever you want
We’ll continue to lay low. My wife has a friend who is a counselor of some type for children and their families in the ER and she had a conference call with other nurses today and they are finding in New York that the majority of kids coming into the hospital for non covid related issues are testing positive for covid and are asymptomatic.
It’s our job to keep our kids safe and we won’t do anything that jeopardizes theirs health.
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the majority of kids coming into the hospital for non covid related issues are testing positive for covid and are asymptomatic.
if you look up 'kid' in the dictionary, you'll find one of the alternate definitions is 'germ warehouse and distribution facility'
closing schools back in march has probably saved thousands of lives already.
Dan
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