Coronavirus
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Not a terribly impressive graph because it's presented on a linear scale. A virus spreading in a vulnerable population spreads exponentially, not linearly. Yes, they work. The problem is that "individual choice" means nothing in a pandemic, because it's the sum of the action that is taken by all people, in aggregate, that makes the difference. At my my employer, mask wearing went from 5% to 95% overnight, because of a county mandate. What one person chooses to do individually makes little difference. Similar to voting, but I digress...
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UW Madison is going CRAZY right now.
UW Stout just started last week. I have 3 labs per week in class. (2 classes) I officially give it 2 weeks from today they will probably shut down.
Sounds about right. File under "an attempt was made".
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Sounds about right. File under "an attempt was made".
This is how I feel about most things
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This is how I feel about most things
Today I took a picture of my VIN with the intentions of looking up part numbers and ordering some parts I need (CSB, giubo, front brakes). Didn't get that far, but I did at least get out for a short bike ride and made dinner... Basically working 1.75 jobs now that I've "moved to engineering", but still have to train literally 5 people to do different parts of the work that I was doing and also finish the work that needs to be done after the trainees go home "because it's 4:30".
Definitely dropping out of society and become a bum/traveling for 6 to 12 months when my lease is up at the end of next summer.
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The reason people are frustrated is because what we're doing is working. We're still on the first part of the curve where it's skinny and not increasing very fast. The virus isn't spreading out of control and we still have time to prepare.
Before the stay-at-home order, the number of cases was doubling about every 3 days. Based on the assumption that our current doubling rate is 16 days and our current number of new cases per day is 250, here's how things will look given the following doubling rates.
One of the fancy-pants engineers in the room should check my numbers here.
June 1st
doubling time new cases per day
16 days 841
8 days 2828
4 days 32000...and by Jun 15th
doubling time new cases per day
16 days 1542
8 days 9514
4 days 362,038...and July 1st
doubling time new cases per day
16 days 3084
8 days 38,055
4 days 5,792,619I would calculate the total number of cases, but that's calculus and I ain't trying to remember how to do that shit right now. Point is exponents will "F" your "S" up. We can't afford to go back to having the number of cases doubling every three days. Even 8 days is starting to look pretty gruesome by the time July rolls around. The point is to keep the curve flat enough so that our healthcare system can handle the surge. That won't be possible if people try to go back to living their normal lives. Currently, I am one of these A-holes causing the problem because I work in a building with 40 other people. So far I haven't figured out how to stop going to work, but still have access to food and shelter... This is a moral dilemma for me, since my job isn't really "essential", we make circuit boards... The best I can do is try to avoid it if possible, and do my best not to spread it if/when I get it.
We did better than I expected, but....
Wow, exponents!
Unpopular opinion: By the time a vaccine is widely available, the virus will already be on the decline because ~50% of the population will have already contracted it.
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Unpopular opinion: By the time a vaccine is widely available, the virus will already be on the decline because ~50% of the population will have already contracted it.
I keep having this thought as well. I had to get tested last week since a few people I had been around at work now have it, one who is 400+ lbs diabetic, and wheezes when he walks 50 feet was hospitalized for a week and just got out yesterday which is great as all odds were against him. These are not malicious comments, these are facts. One of my kids was sick too, so we got tested together, both negative. Thought I had dodged a few bullets then found out my in-laws tested positive and my wife had given them hugs/been close to them so now im watching to see how that plays out. The testing line at Miller Park is dreadfully long. I dont want to have to revisit that anytime soon.
Those poor nurses and frontline workers man. They all deserve a massive bonus and vacation next year when things are out of the weeds.
I still really appreciate Mike Rowe's perspective on things
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They all deserve a massive bonus and vacation next year when things are out of the weeds.
if they’re really lucky they’ll each get a card signed by their management saying “thanks”
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I keep having this thought as well. I had to get tested last week since a few people I had been around at work now have it, one who is 400+ lbs diabetic, and wheezes when he walks 50 feet was hospitalized for a week and just got out yesterday which is great as all odds were against him. These are not malicious comments, these are facts. One of my kids was sick too, so we got tested together, both negative. Thought I had dodged a few bullets then found out my in-laws tested positive and my wife had given them hugs/been close to them so now im watching to see how that plays out. The testing line at Miller Park is dreadfully long. I dont want to have to revisit that anytime soon.
Those poor nurses and frontline workers man. They all deserve a massive bonus and vacation next year when things are out of the weeds.
I still really appreciate Mike Rowe's perspective on things
https://uwm.edu/coronavirus/rapid-results-testing/
Was in and out in about an hour and a half (the computer system went down, would've been faster had that not happened). They do a rapid antigen test with results within a half hour, and then a confirmatory PCR testing (with results in a few days) if you test negative and have symptoms, or test positive and don't. Much better than waiting 3-5 days for any result with the other testing sites.
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if they’re really lucky they’ll each get a card signed by their management saying “thanks”
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Unpopular opinion: By the time a vaccine is widely available, the virus will already be on the decline because ~50% of the population will have already contracted it.
at this rate, yes. and some people twice. but we'll still need that vaccine to quell outbreaks for years in the future.
Dan
Look at this Covid graph. Every time I do it makes me sad. 
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