Coronavirus
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@jc43089 the flaw with only looking at death rate is the death does not occur without the virus so if positive cases slow down then the death rate should also slow down pending a freak outbreak in a retirement community or something similar. And again, the instance with your in-laws shows that rural communities are under reporting and could have a much higher rate of infection but we won't know for various reasons (lack of available care, lack of transportation, stubbornness, etc.). Also, if she would have passed and actually been tested and tested positive it doesn't just go in one column. It would be 1 positive case, 1 death. Increased testing would be great but again, that testing drops off drastically in rural communities where access to testing would be limited or difficult to get. An antibody test would be great but there are multiple forms of corona virus that create similar anti-bodies so this doesn't determine if someone has had it and doesn't help track spread.
As far as people dying due to quarantine, that's an ridiculous question because that would never show up as a cause of death. And how does someone die from quarantine? Lack of self care? Lack of food/water? Suicide? Other than suicide people aren't going to allow themselves to starve/dehydrate to the point of death. They'll break quarantine to survive. And if they were in such dire straights then quarantine or not they were on the extreme end of a spectrum.
I'm not saying we need to sit and print more money, that doesn't help the country long term. I'm not saying we need to quarantine longer. I understand the ramifications this has on small business better than most based on my interactions with 10-20 small businesses a day albeit in one sector. I am saying that i'd like you to provide a better argument for your reasoning as opposed to citing data that's completely irrelevant to the issue. I have a lot of respect for your opinion and enjoy hearing your perspective.
Absolutely the death doesn't occur without the virus. I think you are saying the same thing I am about the low testing rates. My interpretation is that the low testing rates make it seem like very few people are infected which is being shown false by the pockets of broad testing like in New York and California. In Wisconsin and most other places the only people tested are severe cases which have a much higher percentage of fatality because they are severe cases in the first place. For example, if 1% of population is tested and they were all severe cases and or have co-morbidity issues and 5% of them die that does not indicate that 5% of the population will die, rather that 5% of severe cases die. More testing will not find more deaths, those are already documented. Testing will only find additional mild or asymptomatic carriers. So rather than 5% of population size x the actual fatality rate is 5% of 1% = .05% (those numbers are for illustration only). The pockets of widespread testing are showing that significant percentages of people have it and are mild or asymptomatic which is good because it means the virus is running it's course which builds herd immunity.
There are many doctors and professionals discussing issues relating to quarantine, ranging from undiagnosed illness, cancer, etc because routine doctor visits are not available. To increases in suicide, domestic abuse, etc. Very sad side effects. That is what I was referring to when I said there is a death toll FROM the quarantine. Many cancers the recovery depends critically on early diagnosis and treatment. 60 days or more delay quite likely could make the difference. I realize that "Covid-19 quarantine" isn't what the cause of death on the paperwork would be, but if my dad had a scheduled colonoscopy for partway through the stay at home order and it would have diagnosed cancer, by the time things get going again which may take a while because of how many doctor visits have been delayed and now need to be caught up on it is quite easy to see that diagnosis could be delayed by 3 months which is significant.
I think the quick reaction to lock everything down was because that is what the early data called for. Now I think it is time to get going again.
I also disagree with how the Walmarts and really any other large company are deemed essential and small businesses are not. Wouldn't it be better to go buy shoes at a small shoe store with few other customers at a time than the only place available being Walmart with hundreds of other people there? I'd like to go get some RedWing boots that are made in the USA from my local RedWing store but I can't. I don't buy trash imported boots from Walmart.
The goal of stay at home/shelter in place was never to be able to just stall out the spread because it couldn't get to the next person, that isn't possible when so many still need to go to work in essential things like manufacturing, food, etc. Only to slow the spread and avoid overwhelming hospitals. The only way it will be over is for it to run it's course just like every other virus. Aspirus in Wausau just closed 18 rural clinics and furloughed an undisclosed number of employees like many other hospital systems because there is nothing to do, there is no surge. Mayo clinic also has massive furloughs and pay cuts occurring. It seems that the curve has been effectively flattened. I realize there are certain areas where hospitals are more utilized, but many of the temporary ICU locations set up in suspected future hot zones are not even being used. The ventilator situation in New York... That to me means that the initial projections were in error. I am not blaming or pointing fingers, our experts were doing the best they could with the little that was known.
Good conversation. It would be more fun in person over some brews, 6ft apart of course
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So a corporation has immunity and a small business does not?
I am challenging they notion that it makes sense to have a massive building packed with people like Walmart or similar stores but yet a lady doing curbside drop off of a pet is dangerous and needs to be arrested?
What is really going on here is that if a governor tried to make all Walmart's in their state close they would be at the wrong end of a lawsuit within hours.
You do realize that about 647,000 people in the USA died from heart disease last year? That is 12,400 in a week. Ref
So should we ban McDonald's? Cigarettes? Shut the country down? Let's get started solving that problem!
Read here to find that the week of 4/11 had the worst death toll for Covid19 and it was 11,468. Therefore the worst week of Covid19 was not even what the average week of people dying of heart disease, and last week was down to 1,078. The media likes to use sensational numbers but that is baseless and unhelpful like a graph with no units.
You are arguing with me on assumptions. I did not say corporations have immunity, how can they be treated as people? I would love to see Walmart locations get shut down if they don’t enforce the social distancing put in place, the same applies to a small businesses. We wouldn’t have to shut down anything if we were smarter as a society (country for that matter) and if China were more transparent on what was going on over there (they made the WHO look bad by lying to them about it).
Good thing you brought up other fatalities to compare to, have any of them overwhelmed hospitals the way this virus did in some areas? Suddenly it’s not a good idea to start comparing, especially if we hadn’t done anything about this back in March.
Make no mistake, I would go to that protest also, I’m sick of staying at home. I want to go back to the gym and enjoy the company after I finish my shift, I’m sick of going to my empty gym room in my basement. Like I said before, there are laws with worse consequences that don’t lead to deaths, compare that.
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Yall ready for that second wave?
Amazing that with all of the distancing, canceling events and shutting things down we've only managed to get down to a more-or-less linear rate of spreading. Now that it's getting nice out and people are sick of staying home doing nothing it looks like we'll probably be returning to an exponential spread... not good. My freezer and pantry are stocked. Trying to decide how long to wait before I use my vacation to try to avoid being at work when it blows through the place.
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Bring on the second fucking wave. So sick of this shit. The cure is worse than the virus at this point, and the cure is some half assed 'we think this will help' bullshit.
Tear me apart for lack of compassion. Fine. All I see is over a 1/4 of the Wisconsin workforce out of work. That is not cool, not healthy, not for the better good.
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yeah, i saw and heard of many 'parties' this weekend. people say 'social distancing family gathering' but they have no masks, they are sharing food, passing drinks around, etc. i understand the desire, but i don't get why you'd risk getting your family sick.
Dan
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Bring on the second fucking wave. So sick of this shit. The cure is worse than the virus at this point, and the cure is some half assed 'we think this will help' bullshit.
Tear me apart for lack of compassion. Fine. All I see is over a 1/4 of the Wisconsin workforce out of work. That is not cool, not healthy, not for the better good.
The reason people are frustrated is because what we're doing is working. We're still on the first part of the curve where it's skinny and not increasing very fast. The virus isn't spreading out of control and we still have time to prepare.
Before the stay-at-home order, the number of cases was doubling about every 3 days. Based on the assumption that our current doubling rate is 16 days and our current number of new cases per day is 250, here's how things will look given the following doubling rates.
One of the fancy-pants engineers in the room should check my numbers here.
June 1st
doubling time new cases per day
16 days 841
8 days 2828
4 days 32000...and by Jun 15th
doubling time new cases per day
16 days 1542
8 days 9514
4 days 362,038...and July 1st
doubling time new cases per day
16 days 3084
8 days 38,055
4 days 5,792,619I would calculate the total number of cases, but that's calculus and I ain't trying to remember how to do that shit right now. Point is exponents will "F" your "S" up. We can't afford to go back to having the number of cases doubling every three days. Even 8 days is starting to look pretty gruesome by the time July rolls around. The point is to keep the curve flat enough so that our healthcare system can handle the surge. That won't be possible if people try to go back to living their normal lives. Currently, I am one of these A-holes causing the problem because I work in a building with 40 other people. So far I haven't figured out how to stop going to work, but still have access to food and shelter... This is a moral dilemma for me, since my job isn't really "essential", we make circuit boards... The best I can do is try to avoid it if possible, and do my best not to spread it if/when I get it.
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From the WI DHS google doc:
We've been in a holding pattern around 16-20 days for a while. Looks to spike up about once a week, I'm assuming that's from people who are working staying home on the weekends. Note that if the number of new cases every day was staying the same or going down this number would be infinite. We can't even keep it above 20. I don't know why anyone would be in a hurry to decrease this number.
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So.....people are getting frustrated because it's working? The numbers tell whatever story we want them too. So do the unemployment numbers, the bankruptcy numbers, the numbers of cars lined up at the food banks, suicide numbers, the numbers of farmers dumping product, numbers numbers numbers. What everyone is trying to do, is make anyone, like me, look like an asshole when we look at ALL the numbers instead of just the very very small numbers relating directly to Covid infections and deaths.
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So.....people are getting frustrated because it's working? The numbers tell whatever story we want them too. So do the unemployment numbers, the bankruptcy numbers, the numbers of cars lined up at the food banks, suicide numbers, the numbers of farmers dumping product, numbers numbers numbers. What everyone is trying to do, is make anyone, like me, look like an asshole when we look at ALL the numbers instead of just the very very small numbers relating directly to Covid infections and deaths.
I agree that our response to this hasn't been very well thought out or executed. The problem is that there is too much news and most of it isn't very useful. The news we need to know is what the rate of spread is in a particular area, and lock down areas where there is an outbreak happening. Unfortunately our government doesn't have the resources or the authority to execute a strategy like that.
I've been trying to find a map for wisconsin that shows infection rate or doubling time by county, but haven't come up with much yet. This is the best I could find.
Things are fine now, but if everyone goes back to normal it will be a shitstorm within a few weeks. The problem is that you need a targeted, fast response to local outbreaks. To my knowledge, our government doesn't have the ability, or maybe the willingness, to do that, so we're stuck with the half-assed stategy of "everyone stay home". It sucks, but the alternative is worse.
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Our work is planning to have 20-30% of the people back in the offices by June 1st. Which seems premature given that there is no evidence of anything getting better whatsoever. Thankfully, we were asked if we had any pressing need to be back in the office, which I absolutely do not. Both of my districts that I cover are close to a thousand miles from here so I really have no need to back at the office.
I don't know what the fixation is on people being in the office. I understand the implication is that there is more control of the employees when they are in the office or that people will be more focused on work. Hard to be focused when you're concerned the other people in the office are spreading shit. The fact of the matter is that most of us(at my job specifically), can do our work remotely. It just seems incredibly nearsighted.
Also, I don't want to drive to work.
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I think we need to let the shitstorm happen. The numbers say that there won't be a shitstorm, only that there could be one. And if there is, so be it. You CAN'T shut down the entire economy. food chains are broken, bad shit is happening far worse than even the worst predictions of the virus.
Turn the economy back on, let people go back to normal. I'm stand by that position.
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I think we need to let the shitstorm happen. The numbers say that there won't be a shitstorm, only that there could be one. And if there is, so be it. You CAN'T shut down the entire economy. food chains are broken, bad shit is happening far worse than even the worst predictions of the virus.
Turn the economy back on, let people go back to normal. I'm stand by that position.
you say worse things are happening than the worse predictions of the virus. they predict that the virus could kill 40 million people without measures like stay at home. please tell me what you think is worse than 40 million dead people, i'm very curious.
Dan
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Our work is planning to have 20-30% of the people back in the offices by June 1st. Which seems premature given that there is no evidence of anything getting better whatsoever. Thankfully, we were asked if we had any pressing need to be back in the office, which I absolutely do not. Both of my districts that I cover are close to a thousand miles from here so I really have no need to back at the office.
I don't know what the fixation is on people being in the office. I understand the implication is that there is more control of the employees when they are in the office or that people will be more focused on work. Hard to be focused when you're concerned the other people in the office are spreading shit. The fact of the matter is that most of us(at my job specifically), can do our work remotely. It just seems incredibly nearsighted.
Also, I don't want to drive to work.
I’m kind of hoping this situation helps shed some positive light on working from home. I understand there are a lot of roles that cannot WFH, but for those who can and are just as productive - why not?
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I’m kind of hoping this situation helps shed some positive light on working from home. I understand there are a lot of roles that cannot WFH, but for those who can and are just as productive - why not?
there are some positives, for sure. the reduction of traffic congestion is top for me. for many people, it can give 1 to 2 hours of your life back to do something else, everyday.
Dan
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I’m kind of hoping this situation helps shed some positive light on working from home. I understand there are a lot of roles that cannot WFH, but for those who can and are just as productive - why not?
I think will see a big paradigm shift after this clears. Hard to give people months of working from and doing their jobs as they were before and then suggest they need to be at the office everyday to do the same role.
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there are some positives, for sure. the reduction of traffic congestion is top for me. for many people, it can give 1 to 2 hours of your life back to do something else, everyday.
This is the big one for me. I lose about an hour and a half a day just being in the car. Thankfully I have a buddy I car pool with, but the time is still lost.
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there are some positives, for sure. the reduction of traffic congestion is top for me. for many people, it can give 1 to 2 hours of your life back to do something else, everyday.
WRONG!
That’s 1 to 2 more hours that you can work from home!
Everytime I ask my boss to choose what projects he wants prioritized because not all of them can possibly be done on time, he is supportive and helpful by telling me “well, if you need to work saturday or sunday, thats fine, otherwise there are more than 8 hours in a workday” (im typically working 6:45-4:45 everyday, sometimes til 5:30)
Eat shit, Pete.
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Eat shit, Pete.
Brian - This is your boss, Pete. In real life. I'll see you in my office first thing tomorrow morning to have a zoom meeting with HR in which we'll both be a safe distance from you at home as to not break company policy 19C-0V16. While you're chatting with these internet people you could be logging hours! Also, we need to discuss your choice of internet mimes. They seem inappropriate for a man in your position.
-Pete
Brian's Boss
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